tech

Will you choose to "take a flying taxi" to work once the price of eVTOL drops to 6 yuan per kilometer per person?

01

Shenzhen-Zhuhai "flying taxi" could be reduced to 6 yuan per kilometer

According to the latest news, Xie Jia, Senior Vice President of AutoFlight Aviation Technology Group, stated that the unit price of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) will drop to a level of 6 yuan per kilometer per person.

For instance, the straight-line distance from Shenzhen to Zhuhai is less than 40 kilometers, and the ticket price for traveling from Shekou in Shenzhen to Jiuzhou Port in Zhuhai by eVTOL could potentially be reduced to as low as 240 yuan. This journey, which would normally take at least two and a half hours by car, could be completed in just 20 minutes by eVTOL. This new type of transportation is not only fast but also more economical and environmentally friendly compared to traditional modes of transport. AutoFlight Aviation's "Shengshi Long" eVTOL is expected to be commercially operational by 2026.

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Such a low price has piqued many people's curiosity about the cost of eVTOLs, and currently, the cost of eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) varies depending on the specific service and route. Here is some information about eVTOL costs provided by different sources:

1. Individual cost:

- From "Shanghai Pudong New International Expo Center" to "Suzhou Oriental Gate," a one-way trip of about 100 kilometers within 25 minutes, with an individual charge of 300 yuan.

- In the Guangzhou-Shenzhen charter mode (100 kilometers), approximately 30 minutes, the price is 740 yuan.1. A flight from Shenzhen to Zhuhai takes only 20 minutes, with the ticket price expected to be just 200 yuan.

2. Cost for multiple passengers:

- The individual cost for a four-seater model is 297 yuan.

- The luxury private car costs 890 yuan, a regular private car 511 yuan, a taxi 280 yuan, and the subway 11 yuan.

From a time efficiency perspective, eVTOLs have a significant advantage. For instance, Guo Liang, CEO of Wofei Changkong, points out that eVTOLs, with their vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, can reduce over an hour of commuting by car to just a few minutes, with an average time that is 1/5 of ground transportation. This efficient mode of travel is particularly attractive in densely populated urban areas, where it can significantly shorten people's commutes.

In terms of cost, as eVTOL products move towards mass production, it is anticipated that the single-trip ticket price will continue to decrease and eventually converge with that of luxury cars. This indicates that, despite potentially high research and development and operational costs initially, eVTOLs are expected to become a more cost-effective mode of transportation in the long run.

Additionally, eVTOLs also have advantages in terms of environmental friendliness and low noise. Compared to traditional aircraft, eVTOLs have significant advantages in safety, intelligence, economy, and environmental friendliness, allowing for seamless and economical transportation of people and goods. This is an important selling point for urban residents who are increasingly concerned about environmental protection.

However, eVTOLs are not in complete competition with ground transportation but rather complement it. eVTOLs are primarily used for short-distance transportation within cities, while ground transportation is more suitable for long-distance or large-scale transportation of people and materials. Therefore, both can leverage their respective strengths in different travel needs, jointly building a more efficient, convenient, and green urban transportation system.Rapidly Decreasing Operational Costs

eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) vehicles have a significant cost advantage over traditional helicopters. According to various data and analyses, the operational cost of eVTOLs is approximately between $0.5 and $2.5 per seat per mile, which is much lower than the $6-8 per seat per mile for helicopters.

This cost advantage is primarily due to the electrification technology of eVTOLs, which greatly reduces the overall cost and maintenance expenses. Additionally, the autonomous flight capabilities of eVTOLs result in relatively lower labor and facility costs.

However, for the general consumer, the issue of high per-ride costs for eVTOLs remains. According to a white paper on "Passenger eVTOL Applications and Market" jointly published by China Southern General Aviation and Volant, for the route from Shanghai Lingang to Hongqiao Transportation Hub in the early stages of eVTOL operation, with a 10% operational profit margin, the total one-way charge would be 1,188 yuan, with a per-seat price of 297 yuan.

This year, EHang Intelligent announced the price of its eVTOL aircraft, the EH216-S. In the Chinese market, the suggested retail price for this aircraft is about 2.4 million yuan (approximately $338,000) per unit. Industry research data indicates that the official guide price for EHang Intelligent's EH216-S unmanned passenger aircraft system in China is 2.39 million yuan per unit. Furthermore, the CEO of another company, Shi Di Technology, Huang Yongwei, stated that the mass production price of their E20 eVTOL tiltrotor is expected to be around seven to eight million yuan.

The high initial price of eVTOLs is mainly due to high technology and production costs. With technological maturity and mass production, it is anticipated that the price of eVTOLs will significantly decrease in the coming years. By 2040, the purchase cost of eVTOLs is expected to further reduce to around one million yuan, which will greatly promote their market penetration and application.

Nevertheless, eVTOLs still face some challenges, such as high initial acquisition costs and pilot salaries for test flights. Overall, however, eVTOLs have a clear advantage in operational costs, and with the development of technology and expansion of the market, their economic viability will further improve.Blossoming Low-Altitude Passenger Routes

Low-altitude passenger routes refer to a new mode of transportation that uses helicopters, eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft), and other low-altitude flying vehicles for short-distance travel between cities or regions. In recent years, with the development of the low-altitude economy, several cities have begun to explore and implement low-altitude passenger route projects.

According to the "Guangdong Province Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Low-Altitude Economy (2024-2026)" released by the People's Government of Guangdong Province, Guangdong supports cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai, which have the necessary conditions, to open intra-city and inter-city low-altitude passenger routes. The aim is to create a low-altitude air traffic corridor covering the main areas of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. These routes can not only improve the commuting efficiency between cities but also expand new business forms such as aerial commuting, business travel, aerial shuttle, intermodal connections, and cross-border flights.

For instance, the first short-distance low-altitude route between Shenzhen and Zhuhai has been launched, with a one-way trip taking only 20 minutes, significantly reducing the travel time between the two locations. Additionally, Shanghai is actively piloting low-altitude passenger routes, such as the two-way low-altitude passenger service between Pudong International Airport and the urban terminal building in Kunshan, Jiangsu. This not only provides passengers with new travel options but also significantly shortens commuting times.

Chengdu has also launched two urban low-altitude passenger flight test routes, taking off from the Luodai General Aviation Airport and flying to the China-Europe Center and Qingcheng Mountain, before returning to Luodai General Aviation Airport. The successful test flights of these routes mark the transition of the low-altitude economy from the planning stage to practical application, further enriching the application scenarios of the low-altitude economy.

Overall, the opening and promotion of low-altitude passenger routes represent an important innovative direction for future urban transportation models, and the field is currently flourishing.

04

Cargo May Take the Lead

Passenger transport is not an easy task. In the industry's view, the future market prospects for eVTOLs are broad, but there is still a long way to go before large-scale commercialization. They face multiple challenges, including obtaining airworthiness certification, exploring application scenarios, and cost pricing.It is reported that obtaining airworthiness certification is a prerequisite for the commercial operation of eVTOL. Industry insiders in the flying car field told Blue Whale News that an aircraft needs to obtain three certificates before it can "go to work," including the Type Certificate (TC), Production Certificate (PC), and Airworthiness Certificate (AC).

Among them, the TC certificate is the "birth certificate" for an aircraft. New aircraft models that are to be put into commercial operation must obtain this certificate; otherwise, they cannot be legally introduced to the market. Obtaining the PC certificate indicates that the applicant has established a complete quality system for aircraft production, ensuring that every aircraft and its components produced meet the approved design and are in a safe and usable condition.

The final certificate is the AC, which is the "health certificate" for each aircraft about to enter operation. It signifies that the Civil Aviation Administration of China believes that this particular aircraft complies with the approved design and is in a safe and usable condition.

At present, most companies are still in the stage of applying for and accepting the TC certificate. Taking Xiaopeng Huitian as an example, on March 21st of this year, the application for the type certificate (TC) of its "land aircraft carrier" flying car's airframe (code: X3-F) was officially accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China's Central South Regional Administration, marking the model's upcoming entry into the airworthiness certification phase.

A person related to Xiaopeng Huitian revealed at that time, "This can be considered the fastest acceptance speed in history. Generally, it takes about a week to be accepted, and we submitted on the 20th and were accepted on the 21st."

Compared to passenger scenarios, eVTOL is more likely to be commercially implemented first in the cargo scenario.

The commercial prospects of eVTOL cargo are gradually being realized. The V2000CG cargo version eVTOL by AutoFlight Technology has obtained the type certificate and has begun preparations for commercial operation. It is mentioned that with the V2000CG cargo version eVTOL receiving its type certificate, ZTO Express announced the purchase of 30 units of this model eVTOL, indicating that eVTOL cargo has started to enter the market application phase.Further confirmation of this point indicates that the cargo version of Feifly's aircraft, the V2000CG (Carry Eagle), has been awarded a Type Certificate in March of this year, becoming the first ton-class eVTOL aircraft to receive a TC.

Additionally, it is shown that Feifly Aerotech's 2-ton eVTOL cargo aircraft has completed compliance verification tests, and it is expected to obtain a Type Certificate for cargo scenarios by 2024, which further supports the notion that eVTOL cargo will be the first to take off. The Deloitte timeline predicts that cargo eVTOLs will begin commercialization from 2020, while the first phase of passenger eVTOL commercialization will start from 2025, aligning with the current progress.

Of course, while the long-term prospects for the practical application of eVTOLs in both cargo and passenger transport are quite promising, in the short term, there are numerous challenges to be addressed for the realization of low-altitude travel. Issues such as aircraft airworthiness certification, air traffic management systems, airspace, flight route planning, construction of takeoff and landing sites, and navigation and communication infrastructure all require time to be built and perfected. However, as the operating costs of eVTOLs continue to decrease, it is possible that they will form a certain competitive relationship with taxis in the field of medium to long-distance urban transportation.